The Role Of Economic Factors In The Transformation Of EU-Russia Relations: From Partnership To Confrontation

Abstract

This article analyzes the transformation of relations between the European Union (EU) and Russia after 2014 through the lens of political economy, with a focus on the role of economic factors as instruments of geopolitical influence. At the heart of the study is a theoretical reflection on the shift from strategic partnership to systemic confrontation. Drawing on neorealist and liberal-institutionalist perspectives, the article explores how economic tools – such as energy, sanctions, and trade – have evolved into instruments of foreign policy pressure and response. Special attention is given to three key factors: energy security, trade disputes, and sanctions policy. These elements have become mechanisms for reshaping interdependencies that once ensured relative stability. Politically, the study illustrates how the erosion of trust, intensification of ideological rivalry, and a paradigmatic shift in Russia’s foreign policy after 2014 contributed to growing geopolitical tensions.

Methodologically, a mixed approach is applied: the qualitative component includes an analysis of political decisions, sanctions regimes, and high-profile cases (e.g., the 2009 gas crisis and WTO dispute DS608), while the quantitative analysis relies on data from Eurostat, the World Bank, and the National Bank of Ukraine. This combination allows for an assessment of not only economic consequences but also political motives and strategic state behavior. A significant section of the article is devoted to Ukraine, which is portrayed as both a geopolitical battleground and an active actor. Ukraine has not only become a target of Russian pressure but has also initiated a strategic reorientation toward the EU, reflected in the signing of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA). This move has had both economic (market diversification, reduced dependence) and political (enhanced sovereignty, foreign policy transformation) implications. The article offers a political science analysis of economic instruments as levers of power in international relations and outlines Ukraine’s prospects in terms of strategic balancing between security challenges and integration opportunities.