GLOBAL TRENDS IN THE TRANSFORMATION OF THE WORLD ORDER

Abstract

The modern world has entered a phase of profound systemic transformations, leading to a transition toward a polycentric and spatially fragmented world order. In this turbulent environment, multiple actors interact – states, corporate and supranational structures, regional blocs, global cities, and border territories, whose political agency is growing significantly. Increased geopolitical turbulence, the weakening of the global institutional architecture, and the interconnectedness of multidimensional global risks highlight the need for a systematic analysis of the trends that determine the dynamics of the transformation of the world order in the 21st century.

The purpose of this article is to analyze key global trends and justify their impact on the transformation of the modern world order; as well as identify the “strategic zones of presence” of states in the global space and their “geostrategic locations” in the new constellation of the world order. The research methodology is based on systematic analysis; comparative methods; strategic analysis (adapted McKinsey matrix); and scenario forecasting.

Research results: Based on an analysis of the global “risk landscape” and a map of the interrelationships between them, trends that have a decisive impact on the transformation of the world order have been identified (geopolitical confrontation, interstate armed conflicts, and the crisis of multilateral diplomacy; economic instability and cross-sectoral geo-economic shifts; climate turbulence; cyber vulnerability and the growing role of artificial intelligence; demographic and migration changes; erosion of social capital and trust). Based on an adapted McKinsey approach, a typology of “geostrategic locations” of states and possible trajectories of their development in the global space has been outlined, determined by the ability of countries to respond to global trends, strengthen strategic autonomy, and ensure the stability of political, economic, and security systems. Conclusions: The new world order is being shaped by multidimensional global trends that increase the turbulence of the geospace and open up new opportunities for its actors. The geostrategic positioning of states and regions in this environment depends on their ability to adapt to risks and exploit new opportunities in the context of global transformation.